| Observation Time: |
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Date: |
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| PARAMETER |
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SKEW T |
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SPC |
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UNITS |
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OPERATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE
& PERTINENT URLS |
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| Fronts |
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http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_wbg.php |
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Short range Frontal
Forecasts from the Hydrometeoroloical Prediction Center |
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| SPC
Forecast |
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http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/ |
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Current Convective
Outlooks |
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| Convective
Inhibition (Capping Layer) |
http://www.stormchaser.niu.edu/machine/fcstsound.html |
KLOT |
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| CINH |
Anti-CAPE |
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CINH
is the area of the sounding between the surface and to the level at which
+CAPE begins and is |
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most
likely to be small in the late afternoon since daytime heating plays a
crucial role in reducing CINH. |
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0-50 |
Weak Cap |
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51-199 |
Moderate Cap |
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> 200 |
Strong Cap |
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| Convective
Potential |
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NA |
http://www.stormchaser.niu.edu/machine/fcstsound.html |
KLOT |
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| K Index |
KI |
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A
measure of the thunderstorm potential based on vertical temperature lapse
rate, moisture |
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content of the lower
atmosphere, and the vertical extent of the moist layer. |
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< 15 |
Thunderstorms not likely |
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15 to 39 |
Small Convective
potential |
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> 40 |
Best potential for
thunderstorms with heavy rain |
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| Convective
Potential |
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NA |
http://www.stormchaser.niu.edu/machine/fcstsound.html |
KLOT |
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| Total
Totals |
TT |
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Vertical
computational totals + cross computational totals (picks up where K Index
stops) |
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> 44 |
Convection Likely |
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| Instability |
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http://w1.spc.woc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=20 |
Thermodynamics |
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| CAPE |
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J/Kg |
CAPE is effectively the positive
buoyancy of an air parcel and is an indicator of atmospheric instability |
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| Surface
Based |
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Below 0 |
Stable |
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| 100mb
Mixed Layer |
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0-1000 |
Marginally |
Unstable |
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| Most
Unstable/LPL Height |
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1001-2500 |
Moderately |
Unstable |
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2501-3500 |
Very |
Unstable |
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3500+ |
Extremely |
Unstable |
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| PARAMETER |
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SKEW T |
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RUC |
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UNITS |
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OPERATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE
& PERTINENT URLS |
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| Instability |
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Deg C |
http://w1.spc.woc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=20 |
Thermodynamics |
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| LI |
Lifted Index |
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The
delta between lifted parcel temp at 500mb and environmental temp at 500mb |
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>1 |
Stable but weak
convection possible |
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| (Surface
Based) |
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0 to -3 |
Marginally unstable |
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-4 to-7 |
Moderately unstable |
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-8 or less |
Extremely unstable |
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| Instability |
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Deg F |
http://w1.spc.woc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=20 |
Observations |
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| SB
Temp |
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> 60 |
Part of instability comes
from heat near the ground. |
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| Surface
Based Temperature |
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| Instability |
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Degrees F |
http://w1.spc.woc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=20 |
Observations |
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| Moisture Surface Based Dew Point |
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| SB
Dew Point |
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> 55 |
Part of instability comes
from moisture near the ground. |
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| 850mb
Dew Point |
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> 11 |
http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=home&page=about |
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| (5Kft) |
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| Instability |
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http://w1.spc.woc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=20 |
Thermodynamics |
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| Lapse Rate |
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Deg C |
A
dry adiabatic temperature profile will have lapse rates near 9.6 C/km, while
moist adiabatic lapse rate |
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| Temperature |
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iis
near 6 C/km. If lapse rates are
"steep" from the surface to 3km AGL, then convective inhibition
is |
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usually
weak and thunderstorm development could occur (given sufficient moisture). |
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| Low Level |
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Sfc to 3 km |
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< 6 C/km |
Absolutely Stable |
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6-9.6 C/km |
Conditionally Unstable |
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>9.6 C/km |
Absolutely Unstable |
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| Mid Level |
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1.5 to 5 km |
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< 6 C/km |
Absolutely Stable |
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6-9.6 C/km |
Conditionally Unstable |
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>9.6 C/km |
Absolutely Unstable |
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| PARAMETER |
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SKEW T |
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NAM |
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UNITS |
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OPERATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE
& PERTINENT URLS |
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| Shear |
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Knots |
http://w1.spc.woc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=20 |
Wind Shear |
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| Bulk
Shear |
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The difference in wind
(speed and direction) between two levels |
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| 0 - 1 km |
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| 0 - 6 km |
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35 - 40 |
Supercells Possible |
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| Effective |
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> 40 |
Supercells Likely |
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| Shear |
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NA |
http://w1.spc.woc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=20 |
Wind Shear |
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| BRN
Shear |
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Is
a dimensionless number in meteorology relating to vertical stability and
vertical shear (generally, |
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stability
divided by shear). It represents the
ratio of thermally produced turbulence and turbulence |
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generated by vertical
shear. |
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> 35 |
Supercells Likely |
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| Shear |
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NA |
http://w1.spc.woc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=20 |
Windshear |
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| SRH |
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Stability
Index - The overall stability or instability of a sounding expressed as a
single number |
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| Storm
Relative Helicity |
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150 |
Although
not a clear threshold, the approximate threshold for supercell development |
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| 0-1 km |
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150-299 |
Weak Tornadoes (EF0-EF1)
Possible |
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| 0-3 km |
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300-449 |
Strong Tornadoes
(EF2-EF3) Possible |
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| Effective |
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> 450 |
Violent Tornadoes
(EF4-EF5) Possible |
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| Shear
+ Instability |
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NA |
http://w1.spc.woc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=20 |
Composite Indices |
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| EHI |
Energy/Helicity Index |
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An
index that incorporates vertical shear and instability, to forecast supercell
thunderstorms. |
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< 1.0 |
Supercells and tornadoes |
Unlikely |
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| 0-1 km |
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1.0 - 2.0 |
Supercells and tornadoes |
Possible |
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| 0-3 km |
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2.0 - 2.4 |
Supercells
more likely and mesocyclone-induced tornadoes possible |
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2.5 - 2.9 |
Mesocyclone-induced
supercell tornadoes more likely |
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3.0 - 3.9 |
Strong
mesocyclone-induced tornadoes (EF2-EF3) possible |
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> 4.0 |
Strong
mesocyclone-induced tornadoes (EF4-EF5) possible |
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| Velocity/Azimuth
Display |
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Knots/Azimuth/Height |
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| VAD
Plot |
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http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/paulradar.pl?LOT |
(Choose |
VAD
in left column) |
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| PARAMETER |
|
SKEW T |
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RUC |
|
UNITS |
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OPERATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE
& PERTINENT URLS |
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| Lifted
Condensation Level |
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Meters |
http://w1.spc.woc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=20 |
Thermodynamics |
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| (LCL) |
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The
lifted condensation level (LCL) is the height at which the relative humidity
(RH) of an air parcel will |
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reach
100% when it is cooled by dry adiabatic lifting. If the air parcel is lifting further
beyond the LCL, |
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water vapor in the air
parcel will begin condensing, forming cloud droplets. |
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<1000 |
Favorable for tornadoes
with Supercell storms (Non-Sig Tor) |
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<600 |
Favorable for tornadoes
with Supercell storms (Sig Tor) |
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| Significant
Tornado |
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NA |
http://w1.spc.woc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=20 |
Composite Indices |
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| Sig
Tor (Effective) |
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A
multiple component index meant to highlight the co-existence of ingredients
favoring right-moving |
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supercells
capable of producing EF2-EF5 tornadoes.
Also dry air aloft, which is a potential tornado killer |
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> 2 |
Possible significant
tornado (Max = 5/6) |
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| Significant
Tornado |
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http://w1.spc.woc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=20 |
Composite Indices |
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| Sig
Tor (Fixed) |
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The
"Sig Tor (fixed)" is similar to the "sig Tor (Eff)",
except that mlCAPE is replace with sbCAPE, |
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ESRH
is replaced with 0-1 km SRH, the EBWD is replaced with 0-6 km bulk wind
difference. |
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> 2 |
Possible significant
tornado (Max = 5/6) |
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| Supercell
Composite |
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NA |
http://w1.spc.woc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=20 |
Composite Indices |
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| Supercell
Index |
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A
multiple component index to highlight the co-existence of ingredients
favoring supercell thunderstorms. |
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> 4 |
Possible Supercell |
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8 to 20 |
High probability of
supercells |
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| Significant
Hail |
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NA |
http://w1.spc.woc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=20 |
Composite Indices |
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| Sig Hail |
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> 2 |
Based
on 5 parameters, meant to delineate between SIG (>=2" diameter) and
NON-SIG (<2" diameter) |
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hail environments. |
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| Jetstream |
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Knots |
http://w1.spc.woc.noaa.gov/obswx/maps/ |
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| 300mb
Winds |
Speed |
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Dir |
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| (30 Kft) |
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| Potential
Hail Size |
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Inches |
http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS_ETA_ATMOS_HAIL-SIZE_00HR.gif |
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| Hail
Size |
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| PARAMETER |
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SKEW T |
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RUC |
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UNITS |
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OPERATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE
& PERTINENT URLS |
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| Storm
Motion |
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Knots |
http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=home&page=about |
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| Storm
Relative 500mb Winds |
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Measured
relative to a moving thunderstorm usually referring to winds, wind shear or
helicity |
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| Lower
Limit (= 16) |
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< 16 |
Limits potential for
tornadic cells |
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| Upper
Limit (= 40) |
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16 to 40 |
Potential for tornadic
cells |
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| Convective
Storm Type |
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| Bulk
Richardson Number |
BRN |
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NA |
http://w1.spc.woc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=20 |
Composite Indices |
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The
BRN is a decent indicator of convective storm type within given
environements. It incorporates |
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bouyant
energy (CAPE) and the vertical shear of the horizpntal wind,both of which are
critical factors |
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in determining storm
development, evolution and organization |
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10 to 49 |
Associated with
supercell development |
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> 50 |
Suggests
that muliticellular thunderstorm development is most likely |
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| Precipitable
Water |
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Inches |
http://w1.spc.woc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=20 |
Heavy Rain |
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> 1 |
The
total atmospheric water vapor contained in a vertical column of unit
cross-sectional area extending |
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between any two
specified levels. |
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| Vorticity |
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http://www.weather.unisys.com/nam/4panel/nam_500_4panel.html |
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| Sounding |
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Various |
http://www.wxcaster.com/etaskewts.htm |
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(Station Block Number =
KLOT) |
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| Skew T |
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A Skew T plot is a
standard plot used by meteorologists to analyze data from a balloon sounding.
This |
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is a plot of temperature
with height as denoted by pressure. The concept of Skew T means that the |
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temperature is not
plotted vertically but angles off to the right at a 45 degree angle. |
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You can also view Skew T
plots at: |
http://www.stormchaser.niu.edu/machine/fcstsound.html |
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http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/soundings/ |
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| Skew
T Basics |
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http://www.theweatherprediction.com/thermo/skewt/ |
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| Skew
T Index Interpretation |
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http://www.theweatherprediction.com/thermo/interpret/ |
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| Approximate
Height Relationships Used in Analysis and
Forecasting |
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1000 mb |
Surface |
0 km |
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850 mb |
5000 ft |
1.5 km |
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700 mb |
10,000 ft |
3 km |
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500 mb |
18,000 ft |
5 km |
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300 mb |
30,000 ft |
9 km |
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200 mb |
39,000 ft |
12 km |
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| Acronyms
Used In SPC Technical Discussions |
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/acronyms.html |
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| Severe
Weather Glossary |
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http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php |
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| Convective
Environmental Parms and Indices |
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lmk/?n=indices |
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| Determining
the potential severity of thunderstorms: |
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| Radar
Display Information |
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| Analyze
morning Sounding |
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| Determine
time of 1st convection (Clumped Cumulus - the presence of Clumped
Cumulus indicates the effectiveness of surface heating + late occurrence |
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| Surface
Temps for convection (Temp = 60+ degrees and Dew Point
55+ Degrees for sustained tornadic circulation) |
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| Reflectivity
over 45 dBZ at mid-levels |
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| Formation
of hook echoes at low levels |
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| Appearance
of a TVS (as an anomaly) |
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| Penetration
of the storm top significantly higher than the calculated Equilibrium Level
(EL) |
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| Clusters
of cells that merge into one |
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| Cells
that travel slower or to the right of the mean winds |
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| Cells
that split and intensify (generally occur to the right) |
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| Gust
front nature (the intersection of two fronts may give
rise to explosive convection+swift-moving gust front indicates strong down
draft & gusty surface winds) |
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| Storm
Configuration |
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| Bow
echoes often indicate mesoscale organization which may lead to downburst
ahead of the line |
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| Bookend
Vortices (associated with a Bow Echoes) strengthens rearjet inflow, increase surface winds and may
contain tornadoes & gustnados in these vortices |
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| Right
flank storms in a squall have the greatest potential for severity due to the
unblocked inflow |
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| An
isolated storm ahead of a squall may lead to supercell development |
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| Outflow
boundaries (the outflow from thunderstorms acts as a
trigger for new convection + may help destabilize the CAP by helping with
lift) |
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| Existing
thunderstorms provide new outflow (the presence of the
first thunderstorm indicates that the CAP can be broken ) |
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| To
determine probability of tornadoes: |
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| Tornadic
storms are, often, isolated (an isolated storm often
means a supercell) |
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| 90
degree veering of winds within the lowest 4km (13K feet) |
http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/paulradar.pl?LOT |
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| Rotation
in the mesocyclone (general rule: persistent rotating
wall cloud usually precedes a tornado) |
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| Reference
URLs: |
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| Severe
Weather Monitor |
Web Based |
|
|
|
Iowa State |
|
http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/iembot |
|
Severe WX Tab + Chat Room
[lotchat Chicago] |
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|
Real Emwin |
|
http://skywatch.org/realemwin/realemwin.htm |
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Interwarn |
|
http://www.interwarn.com/ |
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| Model
Severe Wx Parameters |
|
http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=home&page=about |
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http://www.wxcaster.com/smallfiles_gfs_svr.htm |
|
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|
http://www.wxcaster.com/smallfiles_central_svr.htm |
|
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|
| Surface
& Upper Air Maps |
|
|
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/obswx/maps/ |
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http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/upper/ |
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|
| Moisture
Convergence |
|
|
|
http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_con_qconv.htm |
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| Jet
Stream Analysis |
|
|
|
http://squall.sfsu.edu/crws/jetstream.html |
|
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|
|
| Geostationary
Satellite Server |
|
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/ |
|
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|
| Surface
Data Details |
|
|
|
http://weather.unisys.com/surface/details.html |
|
|
|
|
| NWS
Short Range Forecasts |
|
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_wbg.php |
|
|
|
|
| Vorticity |
|
|
|
http://weather.unisys.com/nam/4panel/nam_500_4panel.html |
|
|
|
|
| Vorticity
+ Temps + Wind |
|
|
http://weather.unisys.com/upper_air/ua_500.html |
|
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|
|
| NOAA
Composite Map |
|
|
|
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/compmap/ |
|
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|
| Local
Forecast |
KLOT |
|
|
|
www.crh.noaa.gov/lot/?n=forecasts |
|
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|
|
| Upper
Mississippi Valley Forecast |
www.nws.noaa.gov/forecasts/graphical/sectors/uppermissvly.php |
|
|
|
|
| National
Weather Hazards |
|
|
www.srh.weather.gov/nat_hazard.php |
|
|
|
|
| SPC
Mesoanalysis Page |
|
|
http://w1.spc.woc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=13&parm=pmsl |
|
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|
|
| SPC
Outlooks Decoded |
|
|
www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/probinfo.html |
|
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|
| Red
Cross Weather Hazards Page |
https://arcims.redcross.org/website/weather/arc_weather.html |
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